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Looking at the charts, I notice that this $EURNZD swing would be massive. It could yield upwards of 3000 pips! Take a look yourself.

And again, I talk about possibilities here. So to be clear, it is POSSIBLE, that the market will move in the depicted direction. Not probable, not predicted, just possible.

Momentum Is Bearish

The pair has sold off very quickly from highs around 1.80, which means that momentum is bearish and thus not on my side. But on any trade I only have my rules. And the rules state to enter in trend direction as indicated by the 100 period simple moving average. Enter at stop-fishing levels, highlighted by the dashed lines (only one of them has been touched as of now). And last but not least, give this beast time to turn up.

Disclaimer

* Remember, I don’t give investment advice. I write these posts for my own and and your entertainment. Always take responsibility for your trading decisions and analyses and don’t ever blame me or anybody other than yourself. I might or might not be positioned in the instruments I write about.

 

GBPUSD suffered heavily in recent weeks. It lost approximately 1500 pips without any retracement to speak of. Now it trades at a level which can serve as a springboard. In my opinion $GBPUSD is ripe for a bounce.

Short-Term Base

Check the 15-min chart and see for yourself. Looks like a dependable base to me. If there is any such thing as dependable. Anyway, clearly something to trade against and speculate for higher prices in the coming sessions.

 

Sentiment at lows

Sentiment on the pound must be at lows with all these absolutely horrific news. Brexit disasters painted every day. Nobody is bullish the pound it seems. Anyway, you know that logic, everybody has already sold the pound…which never makes sense to me, because someone was on the other side of those sellers and bought from them.  But, and that’s a but I find more appealing: Taking out a prior low and utilizing triggered liquidity to either offload shorts or build longs makes a lot of sense. Let’s see if there are any big boys out there playing the pair in that direction.

* Ok, always remember, no investment advice here. I write these posts for myself and entertainment purposes. Take responsibility for your trades and analyses and don’t ever blame me or anybody other than yourself. I might or might not be positioned in the instruments I write about.

Fundamental Scepticism

I consider myself a crypto currencies sceptic. I am fascinated by the technology behind it (distributed ledger, blockchain), but I have never traded any and still am not trading them…yet. I despise the costly transactions and do not see how the existing crypto currencies can revolutionize the financial world without widespread application and acceptance in everyday life. And yet, I believe I have spotted some bulls in crypto currencies.

I believe that at some point governments around the world will pick up the tech and simply implement their own version of bitcoin. Backed by the force of the gun this new coin will make the “free” versions obsolete or condemn them to a niche existence.

Hedera Hashgraph

By the way, coming from an IT background I looked into the stuff a few months ago. I tried to understand how it works. The one place the made sense to me so far is hashgraph which has nice explanatory videos. So make sure to check that out!

$IOTUSD, $BTCUSD, $LTCUSD

But back to trading. I noticed that some of the coins trade at interesting levels. See the Iota ($IOTUSD) chart for example:

This is the kind of charting situation where turnarounds like to occur. Faking out the bears, buyers eat the supply from trapped breakdown sellers to build meaningful long positions. (You can see the same pattern in my recent post about the $EURUSD)

Same same in bitcoin ($BTCUSD):

Need more? Here’s Litecoin ($LTCUSD):

OK, I think you get the point. I am sure there are others with the same pattern. If correct, the upside is huge from a charting perspective. The downside…well that’s basically up to you to decide when to pull the plug. But safe to say, a meaningful drop below the most recent lows invalidates this trade.

Anyway, compelling stuff, thought I would let you know about it. Tell me in the comments what you think! And stay safe out there!

* Never forget, this is not investment advice. I am not recommending the purchase or sale of anything I write about. I am not allowed and don’t want to be an investment adviser. I might or might not trade the instrument I write about for my own portfolio. Do your own due diligence, take responsibility for your own trades, don’t blame others when it doesn’t work out, especially not me!

 

If you are bullish on EURUSD, then now is a good spot for the major to turn back up.

Silver went nowhere since a few months, probably frustrating a lot of traders in the process. Pulling them in, shaking them out. Rinse and repeat! And yet my analysis suggests a new silver bull market is in the making.

Congestion

The scenario is very simple, as trading should be. From the healthy base the metal formed in 2014/2015, in 2016 it moved strongly and impulsively upwards to a new high at around 21.00 USD. The subsequent long and grinding correction already lasts more than 2 years. And price action has been crammed into a tighter and tighter range. See the congestion on the chart for yourself:

Accumulation and a great RRR

I assume that big players currently accumulate large positions, hence prices don’t fall and congest to increasingly smaller ranges as they withstand the downside. In my scenario I anticipate silver to bullishly extend the drawn channel in the next couple of months (see chart below). There is a clear invalidation point of my trade idea. As soon as price action breaks the downside channel boundary I was wrong and want to be out of the trade and reassess.

Conclusion

This trade idea has a few things going for itself. From a risk to reward perspective this is as good as it gets. We have a very long-term scenario which allows us to turn to shorter timeframes to accumulate a sizeable position at favorable prices. The market sentiment is extremely negative towards metals after a massive and prolonged drop from 50 dollar highs in 2011. All these factors combined make this a very tasty trade which I will be looking to exploit.

 

* Never forget, this is not investment advice. I am not recommending the purchase or sale of anything I write about. I am not allowed and don’t want to be an investment advisor. Do your own due diligence, take responsibility for your own trades, don’t blame others when it doesn’t work out.

Base and Rally

USDSGD is one of the pairs that currently sparks my interest. After a decade long decline the exchange rate has based in the years following 2010 and subsequently shot out of that base with a powerful rally, appreciating from below 1.25 to a price of 1.45 at the peak.

But this rally did not continue and the rate has been sold back down to current levels around 1.30.

Liquidity level triggered

So to recap, I see a base, a strong rally and a vicious pullback in USDSGD which has run into an important level defined by the prior low at approximately 1.3150.

For large players, these are the ingredients to build a meaningful long position. Frustrate the long speculators and run their stops placed below the prior lows. Trigger short speculators who might play this as a short breakout trade. Collect all this short volume to stack up longs and reap profits in the coming months.

Outlook for my USDSGD scenario

In the end it’s simple. I am long and looking to stack up if more opportunities present themselves. But as always, I try to cover my butt. Trade small, very small in fact! This is long-term – sit back, relax and rejoice the carry you are collecting! Patience is key. Find a healthy balance between stacking up and taking small profits. Remember, no matter what you do, you will not have done the optimum!

Trade small

This trade, like any other, is uncertain. I might be completely off with my idea. But if that is the case I am confident my disaster recovery mode will get me out without much or any damage at all, because the sell-off in USDSGD has stretched so far already. This game is risky and the Mr. Market knows no mercy. Trade small! Trade small! Trade small! I can’t repeat it too many times. I have seen people puke up their account in no time!

Work the trade

Trade around your positions. Stack up only on great entries. My first profit taking areas are the highs at 1.3280 and 1.3340. That’s where I will trade around my position. Afterwards, I aim higher for 1.37 and above. This is going to be fun 🙂

Disclaimer: Don’t take this as investment advice. This is just my view of the market I am an amateur. Do your own analysis and take responsibility for your trade!