Weekly Wrap

$AUDUSD, $NZDUSD

The commdolls continue to flush down the toilet. I mean look at the ozzy accelerating through any childish trendline I can draw!

And I continue to get myself into trouble with these pairs. I see the larger pattern potentially making a bearish extension, but of course I can’t help myself and trade some of the support zones on the way down, building a position that’s flashing red. And red is bad! Arrgh! On a positive note, it looks like the channel completed on Friday is holding. On a sucky note, for the trade I took off of that channel that should have brought some release to the bleeding, I mistyped my order size and forgot two zeros. Whatever, I have seen worse! 🙂

$XAGUSD

Anybody watching that silver? It’s been playing dead since days or even weeks, but on Friday finally pushed out of that triangular compression. Wohoo!!! Not yet super bullish IMO, but let’s see if next week brings some follow-through. I wouldn’t mind seeing it above 18.50 soon. Keep tight stops, this fickle biatch can turn on a dime. If it trades back into the triangle my world view changes back to depression. All about that dollar, so watch $EURUSD / $GBPUSD for hints!

$EURUSD, $GBPUSD

Speaking of majors, euro and cable, I mean…WTF? Euro shoots up vertically, I get kicked out of my $EURUSD short, and now? Come on, show that this was real! Ok, here is some context. Reaaaally fu**ing long-term (weekly):

Channel resistance put the pair under pressure around 1.20 but the downside was muted and pretty much called into question by this week’s impulsive rallye. An run up to 1.25 would make sense to complete two waves up. Which is where I will potentially be a seller again. This bias can change if we see weakness on the lower timeframes. Here is my 4h:

This bullish channel that’s currently supporting price might actually offer very nice RRR for bullish continuation trades. But thats very aggressive. I’m not sure I can handle that. On the flip side, no bearish trades as long as this holds!

Cable is a bit more ambiguous. We are locked in an arm wrestle between bulls and bears on the weekly.

It’s kind of like brexit all over again. The decision of up or down is 50:50 but will have yuuuge consequences. And maybe it is about Brexit. Maybe May may not be in control much longer? There are rumors. And my gut says not matter what happens the pound will thrive. It’s been beaten down for years and other nations’ politicians have jealously observed that the UK accomplished what everybody else dreamed of. A depreciating currency. So a snap-back could happen and it could be big. Ok, thats my gut talking and there is a lot of shit in my gut. Don’t bet on this!

$DJIA

One more thing on my mind, look at this 4h chart of the Dow:

Does this look bullish to you? I think it’s going down baby! Down!! Until it doesn’t and Apple reveals iPhoneXXX for 5k dollars which makes everyone project a trillion $ profits per day and buy Apple stock to the moon. And dragging FANG and Tesla along because because. And Nasdaq rises to the moon, which means the dow at least goes to the sky. You get the point. Careful with stocks!

 

Always remember this is not investment advice, I am just writing for entertainment purposes. Do your own analysis!

The “Technical Evidence” For A Bigger Correction

The number of markets that are currently trading at technical targets/resistance is staggering. Usually these targets act as resistance and suggest a bigger correction. I expect stocks to sell off and a little more volatility in the coming weeks.

$Nikkei was one of the first markets to show a reaction after bumping up against resistance.

Next up is the German $DAX, which crumbles rather slowly but has already given back over 400 points from its all-time high. Price action in the $DAX looks very healthy though. Looking with my bullish lense, there is a chance that the $DAX is simply retesting the breakout point from the large channel (solid blue lines).

Moving on to our US American friends. US stocks have gone almost vertical for such a long time that most traders forgot corrections and sell-offs even exist or are too young to have experienced one. $DJIA has been one of the strongest markets and has overshot a couple of major technical levels before this trendline on the weekly chart. $Nasdaq has been the stallion in the stable but it too is trading at a level at which bears commonly come out of hiding. The $S&P500 shows a perfectly clean long-term channel completion. Similarly the $Russel2000 small cap index has completed a long-term channel.

A $GDX Trade With Awesome RRR

RRR-wise, it can’t get much better than this $GDX trade! My estimate is an initial RRR of about 20:1!!! How are the odds that this plays out as planned? I don’t know, as I have never backtested wedge breaks. But it doesn’t really matter that much, be it 50% win ratio or 20% or even 10%, this bet is good! Let the wedge break to the upside and long the shiz out of it. Stops below the recent lows or below the supporting trendline.

* Please don’t take this as investment advice. I’m just presenting my opinion about the market.