Silver went nowhere since a few months, probably frustrating a lot of traders in the process. Pulling them in, shaking them out. Rinse and repeat! And yet my analysis suggests a new silver bull market is in the making.
The scenario is very simple, as trading should be. From the healthy base the metal formed in 2014/2015, in 2016 it moved strongly and impulsively upwards to a new high at around 21.00 USD. The subsequent long and grinding correction already lasts more than 2 years. And price action has been crammed into a tighter and tighter range. See the congestion on the chart for yourself:
Accumulation and a great RRR
I assume that big players currently accumulate large positions, hence prices don’t fall and congest to increasingly smaller ranges as they withstand the downside. In my scenario I anticipate silver to bullishly extend the drawn channel in the next couple of months (see chart below). There is a clear invalidation point of my trade idea. As soon as price action breaks the downside channel boundary I was wrong and want to be out of the trade and reassess.
This trade idea has a few things going for itself. From a risk to reward perspective this is as good as it gets. We have a very long-term scenario which allows us to turn to shorter timeframes to accumulate a sizeable position at favorable prices. The market sentiment is extremely negative towards metals after a massive and prolonged drop from 50 dollar highs in 2011. All these factors combined make this a very tasty trade which I will be looking to exploit.
* Never forget, this is not investment advice. I am not recommending the purchase or sale of anything I write about. I am not allowed and don’t want to be an investment advisor. Do your own due diligence, take responsibility for your own trades, don’t blame others when it doesn’t work out.